There are less than 40 days left in 2018. Winter is coming. For people who make textile and clothing, they all have the mentality of "worrying about clothes and wishing for cold weather". But this winter is doomed to be a little different for textile and clothing people. The cold weather that textile and apparel people hoped for in the past years, even if it came, it is estimated that it will be very difficult for textile factories to make a great improvement in the later stage.
After National Day, I received many telephone messages from the bosses of the same factory. The bosses felt that the factory was not busy at all, and they were looking for lists everywhere. According to the past year's market, this time period is not busy a little should not ah. Normally, factories are still catching up with Double Eleven now. Can't it be that this year's Double Eleven won't be played by everyone?
Light industry manufacturing, textile and apparel industry are mostly small and medium-sized private enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. In recent years, many small factory owners were forced to relocate or switch out of business because of measures such as strengthening fire control management, dismantling violations, security supervision and environmental renovation in some cities.
For those who still stick to this industry, I thought they would have a better life if they had eliminated some and survived. But the current industry seems to be really not optimistic.
Analysis of the reasons behind it
1. The first half of the year has been stocked up! Fabric traders dare not hoard in the second half of the year!
After the carnival in the first half of the year, there are still chicken feathers in the second half of the year. Some apparel enterprises and traders began to store fabrics on a large scale after March under the expectation of "one cloth is hard to find". With the expectation of the rise of Sino-US trade tariffs, the orders of foreign trade enterprises originally placed after September were also advanced to before August, and there were a certain amount of fabrics from the terminal apparel to the traders. Inventory, when the stock of raw materials in the market is saturated, it can be imagined that the main clothing and fabric traders in September and October are afraid to stock up, and orders will naturally slow down.
2. In autumn and winter, especially down clothes, the cost of down and raw materials has doubled, so we dare not hoard them!
In the process of garment production, garment price is directly related to raw material cost, production loss and labor cost. With the improvement of the market in the past two years, the related products of garment products, including fabrics, accessories and so on, ushered in a sharp rise. According to garment enterprises, the cost of down has doubled. Down clothing is used as autumn and winter clothing. Major products, soaring prices and changing trends in recent years make apparel companies worried about the sales of down clothing in autumn and winter. Therefore, they either prepare low-cost inventory in advance or reduce the inventory. Therefore, the order loss of down clothing has a great impact.
In addition, not only down clothing, in recent months, the soaring price of chemical fiber raw materials has increased the cost of enterprises. On the one hand, even the recent price decline, there is a lot of room for price rise compared with the first half of the year. At the same time, the market instability makes it very difficult for enterprises which are in the order-taking pricing season to ship normally and prices rise. In an extraordinary situation, the market rhythm has been disrupted, and traders are afraid to hoard it!
3. Some of them have already been bought, but there are too many stock on the market.
If you say that the market has not started, it is unrealistic, and you can see a sign of the peak season. Some clothing enterprises are still ordering, but why not look at the orders of weaving factories or raw materials factories, which are so depressed? In fact, in past years, off-season hoarding sales in the peak season are normal, but It's the first half of the year that makes traders hoard too much goods. The second half of September and October is the time to sell goods. When high inventory meets a big sale, you can imagine that ah!
4. The weather is not cool yet. Warm winter is expected to be strong.
It has been mentioned before that the high price of down clothing raw materials makes clothing enterprises dare not hoard. Another reason is that all textile enterprises are also looking forward to the cooling of the weather. As soon as the weather cools down, clothing sales in autumn and winter will enter a new round of climax, but this year, there is not much cooling trend after the 11th National Day. Textile people have strong expectations of warm winter.
5. Clothing processing workshops are disappearing and upstream grey fabrics are expanding.
At present, the garment processing market is experiencing the change of cages and birds, including Qiaosi Town, one of the largest garment production bases in China, and Zhili Children's Dress Town, Huzhou. Both of them are experiencing the treatment of scattered pollution. In the future, most of the garment processing workshops will be eliminated. Most of these small enterprises are supplying electronic commerce platforms such as Taobao. In addition, these enterprises will be eliminated. The supplier is mainly some low and middle-end conventional aquatic products, so the renovation of garment processing workshops results in short-term imbalance between supply and demand.
On the other hand, the upstream grey fabric is expanding. With the explosion of grey fabric production capacity, the impact on Jiangsu and Zhejiang market will inevitably lead to vicious competition in the period of overcapacity. At the same time, with the increase of the total number of looms in the country, the absence of printing and dyeing plants, chemical fibre factories and finishing facilities in the central and Western regions, the grey cloth produced will still be returned to Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas for sale, because its lower cost will impact the grey cloth Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang more, resulting in poor market competition, and the dangerous signal of overcapacity is being induced.
6. Sino-US trade and the weakening of e-commerce market affect the economy, and the terminal individual consumption capacity is weakening.
At present, the new tariff imposed by the United States on $200 billion of Chinese imports has reached 10%, and may rise to 25% on January 1. China's economy is beginning to feel pressure. As companies prepare to deal with the impact of U.S. tariffs, China's manufacturing growth momentum is weakening.
In addition, in recent years, the "double eleven" effect has weakened. In the past few years, e-commerce carnival season will drive the turnover of fabric market, but since last year, this effect is gradually weakening. The reason is that in recent years, a large amount of money has flowed into real estate, coupled with higher prices, especially clothing brand prices, resulting in the reduction of terminal personal disposable consumption, consumption capacity is weakening. In this year's case, the order for Double Eleven has not been in large quantities.
For textile owners, now in this peak season encountered a cold wave, is unexpected to everyone, from the end of August to October, every time looking forward to the arrival of orders, but there is a failure, looking at the pile of higher inventory, this is actually more anxious than speculation!
However, not only the problem of orders, but also the fluctuation of raw material prices every day and every week. Every time I receive the notice of price increase, I feel very frightened. I keep thinking: I really want to buy the raw materials when they are gone, but this time it is really going to rise? Or tentative?
Article Source: Network Citation: Chemical Fiber Head